Aviation data company OAG reports that bookings of flights between the U.S. and Canada have cratered 70% compared to 2024. And it’s not just current travel bookings that are down – every month through the end of September is down 70% or more.
Airlines are responding, cutting capacity during what are normally peak travel months. At the moment, it’s still a small change, with capacity dropping just 3.5% at the most. However, it’s a sign of uncertainty as rhetoric escalates between the two countries.
Travelers shy away
Canada isn’t the only country affected. Take a peek through European social media accounts and you won’t be there long before seeing posts and videos encouraging European tourists to avoid the U.S. Changing immigration guidelines and scary stories of people with valid visas being detained is giving visitors pause. New data from the U.S. International Trade Association shows a 17.4% drop in Western European arrivals to the U.S. in March compared to 2024.
Germans lead the way, with an 8.5% decline in travel to the U.S. in February 2025 vs 2024. On the other hand, U.K. residents increased their travel in 2025, with both January and February posting gains compared to 2024.
I’m even seeing impacts on domestic travel by foreign residents. Au pairs, young childcare providers in the U.S. on J-1 visas for a year-long experience of working, studying and cultural exchange, are delaying travel even within the U.S. “Honestly, I’m too nervous to travel domestically with my au pair,” one Seattle-area mom said.
The concern goes both ways. Travel advisors are seeing behavioral changes across the board from U.S. travelers as well. In a survey by Travel Weekly, 21.7% of travel advisors report cancellations of travel abroad due to anti-American sentiment abroad. Another 59% said such sentiment is a concern of their clients.
It’s not all bad news, though. One advisor reported a dramatic increase in business this year due to their clients’ increased confidence in the direction of the country.
The economic impact
The U.S. Travel Association estimates that a 10% reduction in Canadian travel would result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses. Though not all Canadians enter the U.S. by air, four of the top five most-visited states by Canadians are likely reached by air. Those are Florida, California, Nevada and Texas. Only New York is easily reachable from Canada by car. At current flight booking levels, a drop of far more than 10% seems possible for the year.
A February report by Tourism Economics, a travel data company, estimated that spending by international visitors as a whole could fall by 12.3%, representing a $22 billion loss. All that adds up to a big loss for the tourism vendors reliant on foreign visitors.
Travel advisors voice concerns
The same Travel Weekly survey found that 72% of travel advisors are very or moderately concerned about the long-term impact of federal government changes on their travel business. A similar number shared this concern about the travel industry as a whole, outside of their own business.
Travel advisors who disproportionately work with federal employees or government contractors are feeling the hit already, with 18.5% experiencing cancellations from clients in this group. While some feel that it is directly related to layoffs, others think the downturn is due to general uneasiness rather than a specific policy or impact to their livelihoods.
Uncertainty takes flight
For now, it’s too soon to say the impact of tariffs and political tensions on the travel industry as a whole. The U.S. Travel Association says it is working with the White House and Congress to “reinforce travel’s role as a cornerstone of the U.S. economy.” Regardless, travel advisors remain wary, travelers are staying on the sidelines, and travel vendors would do well to consider a lighter summer travel season than they originally forecasted.
